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Between Debt and the Devil: Money, Credit, and Fixing Global Finance, by Adair Turner
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Review
"One of The Independent's Best Economics Books of the Year""Bloomberg Businessweek's Best Books of the Year""One of Financial Times (FT.com) Best Economics Books of 2015, chosen by Martin Wolf""One of the Strategy+Business Best Business Books 2016 in Economy""Financial Times Best Economics Books of of the Year""One of The Independent's Best Economics Books 2015""One of Bloomberg Businessweek's Best Books of 2015, chosen by Vítor Constâncio""[Between Debt and the Devil] represents an important challenge to economic orthodoxy, which, as [Turner] rightly notes, has already failed us once."---John Cassidy, New Yorker"Extensively researched and well-written."---Edward Chancellor, Wall Street Journal"[A] remarkable new book."---Will Hutton, Observer
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From the Back Cover
"A masterwork! Insightful . . . and persuasive."--Paul Volcker, former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve"This is a superb book. A must-read for anyone interested in understanding the unhealthy relationship between debt and the modern economy."--Atif Mian, coauthor of House of Debt"This is the most penetrating analysis of the inherent imperfections of our financial system to appear since the crash of 2008. It will and should provoke extensive debates about the policies needed to avoid future crises."--George Soros"Turner's fresh and deep insights into our financial system come with the expertise of an insider.Between Debt and the Devilis a landmark in monetary economics, with profound implications for policy reform."--Joseph E. Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics"Adair Turner is a writer who thinks unusually deeply and is prepared to follow his answers to their logical conclusion, however unsettling. Here, he offers a set of proposals for financial reform that are radical yet practical. As the global financial crisis recedes and the danger mounts that the momentum for change will be lost, we can only hope that the world heeds Turner's clarion call."--Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley"Between Debt and the Devil is a devastating critique of the banking system and a powerful intellectual challenge to conventional wisdom. A splendid book."--Robert Skidelsky, author of John Maynard Keynes, 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman"Stunningly thorough yet highly readable, Between Debt and the Devil is a thoughtful and deeply researched book that covers all the policy angles on debt in advanced economies, from the problems in regulating credit binges to the challenges of dealing with their aftermath."--Kenneth S. Rogoff, coauthor of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly"Between Debt and the Devil is a wide-ranging and highly ambitious book. Turner presents an alternative way of thinking about financial economics."--Alan D. Morrison, coauthor of Investment Banking: Institutions, Politics, and Law"Original and powerful. In a crowded field, this book stands out."--Robert Pringle, author of The Money Trap: Escaping the Grip of Global Finance"Turner's book augments the growing literature that lays bare the realities of boom and bust, bubble and crash, and the recurrent coordination failures that characterize financial history. Between Debt and the Devil will enrich debate among both academics and policymakers."--William H. Janeway, author of Doing Capitalism in the Innovative Economy
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Product details
Paperback: 320 pages
Publisher: Princeton University Press; Revised ed. edition (August 2, 2017)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0691175985
ISBN-13: 978-0691175980
Product Dimensions:
5 x 0.8 x 8 inches
Shipping Weight: 10.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.1 out of 5 stars
25 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#1,158,967 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Between the Debt and the Devil takes a fresh approach to the issues facing our modern economy. Adair Turner became chairman of the FSA in the UK right at the beginning of the financial crisis and has direct experience with the crisis and radical perspectives on the solutions. The financial crisis is still impacting financial markets and the broad economy. Inequalities of income have gotten worse and credit to GDP has increased monotonically. Tackling these issues is extremely complex and the interrelationships make causality almost impossible to determine. Between Debt and the Devil, Adair Turner discusses his view on solutions to the current stagnation he sees us in and focuses in particular on the problems of excessive debt.Mr. Turner starts with the observation that debt has nonlinear benefits with respect to GDP generation and that in particular the initial benefits of aggregating savings so that large scale investment becomes feasible leads to saturated credit markets in which lending predominantly gets funneled into real estate. The author focuses on the changing benefits of credit intensity and makes the observation that excessive debt leads to financial fragility and therefore should be considered to have negative externalities. This view is fundamental to the prescriptions that follow. The author discusses concepts like bank capital requirements and the benefits of higher capital requirements but views the issue from the lens of credit creation rather than too big to fail. The author focuses on the problems of private credit creation and how there is not one equilibrium rate and therefore inflation targeting monetary policy can fail to focus sufficiently on financial fragility that is affecting asset rather than goods inflation. The book covers a lot of ground and looks at these issues including ideas from Minsky, Rajan and Friedman among others. The author brings the idea of nominal GDP targeting as a partial solution to the avoid the cycles of credit creation induced boom bust. The author also brings up the idea of debt forgiveness to reduce some global inequality issues alongside helicopter money and explicit monetization of government debt if there is excess capacity. None of these are trivial and have major repercussions to the modern economy.Between the Debt and the Devil focuses on the problems of high credit intensity economies when credit intensity is concentrated in real estate which is not productivity enhancing. There is no question that asset backed lending rather than investment based lending can be dangerous and Minsky has written extensively on the subject and the endogenous problems of money creation. Whether the more radical solutions proposed are necessary and or sufficient is not easy to analyze given the complex interrelationships involved. What can be said though is the tax benefits associated with debt issuance which were used as policy at a point when the credit intensity of the economy could easily support credit fuelled GDP growth should be different when the credit intensity of the economy reverses those initial benefits. Current tax policies and lending practices should incorporate macro prudential concerns as what might make sense for the individual lender could lead to adverse consequences at the economy wide level. This lesson is well taken from the book, others one should be more careful about believing wholeheartedly. But interesting read and some fresh ideas.
A slight bit technical at times, and probably nothing really groundbreaking, but still a very good summing up of the financial crises and its aftermath.Most importantly, Adair Turner was a heavy weight insider when the crisis hit. He is not another rebel from the outside with theories hacked in his own basement. If you have long been convinced that "the system is rigged" you will learn nothing new from this book, and you will probably dismiss it as way too conservative. If, however, you are looking for possible and likely policy change to prevent deep recession and, perhaps, the next big crash, Adair Turner is your man. He comes from the orthodox banking circles, although he has arguably placed himself somewhere near the exit lately. Chances are that someone powerful is still listening to him.As for the suggested remedies in the book, the most radical is probably money printing. Taboo with central banks and governments alike, Turner makes a strong case for its moderate implementation, even within the paradigm of "central bank independence". Yes, and with little or no inflation too.
Turner's main point, as I understand it, is that it is insufficient to focus merely on the unemployment rate, economic growth and inflation in order to monitor economic health. Private debt levels, and what use that debt is being put to, matter greatly. An interesting point of view, though political realities will likely prevent consideration of most of his proffered solutions.
Too many books have now been written on the causes and consequences of the 2008 financial crisis. Do we really need another? Most of the ground Adair Turner covers has already received exhaustive treatment in Martin Wolf’s The Shifts and the Shocks. Turner’s view is very familiar: the financial sector is too big, we have too much debt, and the banking system should be heavily regulated. There is little surprising or original here. For example, Turner has virtually nothing to say about the interaction between the financial sector and technological innovation. The genuinely innovative ideas in Robert Shiller’s Finance & the Good Society, get passing mention.Turner’s real strength is the directness of his argument, and the relative brevity of his writing - unlike many post-crisis tomes, this book is reasonably short - and much of the familiar ground can be skipped. He correctly frames the current global macroeconomic problem as how to generate growth without ever-rising debt - public or private. He also gets close to reaching the right answer: no well-organised free-market economy which can print money should ever have a persistent shortfall in demand. Turner recommends that central banks should “monetise budget deficitsâ€, which amounts to financing budget deficits by printing money, rather than issuing bonds. Perhaps what is most significant, is that a supposedly radical policy is being endorsed by someone at the heart of the establishment - after all, Turner was Chairman of Financial Services Authroity (FSA) and may well have been Governor of the Bank of England, had the Canadian rockstar not been available.The need for genuine innovation in macro policy making is a clear theme. Turner should be applauded for this. But disappointingly, he fails to consider the range of institutional options which are available - printing money can take many forms: framing and institutional structure is a critical factor. The serious proposals on the table include giving central banks the power to make cash payments to households, subject to their inflation target; steeply negative interest rates and abolishing cash; and cooperation between the fiscal and monetary authorities. Adair Turner only really considers the latter, and without much detail. The relative merits of these policies deserve far more extensive consideration.Eric Lonergan Author of Money (second revised edition)
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